Analise da incidência de casos de COVID-19 no estado do Rio Grande do Norte utilizando o Modelo matemático SIR

Abstract

The Covid-19 pandemic took the world by surprise, it has been shown to be one of the greatest global health challenges of this century and challenged researchers and managers to find effective measures to circumvent the situation and avoid the collapse of health system. The main objective of this work is to apply a mathematical model called SIR, as a measure of control and data collection in the State of Rio Grande do Norte based on epidemiological bulletins, to monitor the progress of the pandemic at the state level, in order to obtain data about the first pandemic months for a better study of the viral behavior of SAR-Cov-2 and thus adopt the effective application of control measures when facing Covid-19. This is a quantitative research, divided into three stages, the first being data extraction, the second data processing and finally the construction of a research report and writing of this present work. The data obtained proved to be effective and within expectations, proving that the SIR mathematical model is efficient as a strategy for monitoring epidemiological events.