Os analistas sell-side fazem boas previsões de preços-alvo no Brasil?
Lima, Melquiades Pereira
Almeida, Vinicio de Souza
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We analyze the performance of target price forecasts consensus and sell-side analyst recommendations in Brazil with three measures - bias, accuracy and informativeness. The sample consisted of 195 shares listed on the BM&FBovespa, 75 brokers and 569 analysts. We apply OLS with panel data for a total of 8477 observations and found: i. lower consistency of sell side analysts forecasts in Brazil compared to international studies; ii. forecasts had correction effect, when analysts make mistakes due to an optimistic forecast, they become less optimistic in their next forecasts, unlike what happens in other markets; iii. concentration in buy recommendations, although the market environment proves pessimistic; iv. You can make gains in the Brazilian market exploring empirical regularities of the dynamics of recommendations and target prices forecasts.